Module 02 – Data Highlights and Visual Summary

Forecasting & Scenario Planning


Growth Dashboard


Forecasting Dashboard


Capacity Planning Dashboard


Historical Client Growth

YearClientsClient GrowthGrowth %New Growth %Growth Drivers
20138080Firm Founded, initial client base from founders’ books
2014901011.11%11.11%Early organic referrals, limited marketing
20151021211.76%11.76%Steady organic growth, advisor-sourced clients
20161171512.82%12.82%Growing referral network, improved local presence
20171422517.61%17.61%Expansion of planning services, stronger referral engine
20181723017.44%17.44%Digital content begins, early marketing traction
20192568432.81%15.23%Advisor recruitment, book acquisition
20202923612.33%12.33%COVID-era volatility, still inbound interest
20213364413.10%13.10%Digital marketing gains, growing advisor strength
20223885213.40%13.40%Continued digital marketing, stronger referrals
20234587015.28%15.28%Inbound lead surge, CSA strain begins
202462716926.95%11.00%One-Time Spike, two advisors join with their books
2025695689.78%9.78%Return to organic capacity, workflow bottlenecks cap throughput
2026 (YTD)725304.14%4.14%Capacity ceiling reached, mid-year snapshot

Client Growth Snapshot

1. Long-Term Growth

a. From 2013 → 2026

• Clients grew 80 → 725 (CAGR ≈ 15.9%)

• Growth driven by referrals, advisor recruitment, and market strength

• Two major advisor‑book acquisitions created temporary spikes

b. Extremely strong for an RIA

2. Client Growth Phases

a. Phase 1 — Early Steady Growth (2013–2018)

b. Phase 2 — Acceleration (2019-2022)

c. Phase 3 — Acquisition Spike → Capacity Plateau (2023–2026)

3. Key Insights

a. 2024 spike is not organic growth – one-time acquisition event

b. Organic capacity roughly 70 clients/year

c. 2026 slowdown reflects capacity limits, not demand

d. The firm has reached a throughput ceiling, making forecasting and capacity planning essential for sustaining future growth


Historical AUM Growth

YearTotal AUMAUM GrowthGrowth %New Growth %Growth Drivers
2013$205,503,895$205,503,895Firm Founded, initial AUM from founders’ books
2014$237,940,866$32,436,97113.63%13.63%Early steady growth, strong markets
2015$271,819,314$33,878,44812.46%12.46%Organic client acquisitions; stable equity markets
2016$315,184,571$43,365,25713.76%13.76%Market tailwinds, growing planning demand
2017$381,203,160$66,018,58917.32%17.32%Strong equity markets, higher-AUM households recruited
2018$459,249,792$78,046,63216.99%16.99%Continued market strength, improved client mix
2019$648,148,367$188,898,57529.14%15.26%Advisor recruitment, large AUM lift
2020$738,096,241$89,947,87412.19%12.19%Market recovery post-COVID, stronger than expected retention
2021$850,162,741$112,066,50013.18%13.18%Organic growth, rising markets
2022$1,006,990,527$156,827,78615.57%15.57%High-AUM households prioritized, strong referral flow
2023$1,175,398,791$168,408,26414.33%14.33%Digital-marketing lift, advisor productivity
2024$1,624,331,141$448,932,35027.64%18.10%One-Time AUM Spike, two advisors join with their books
2025$1,793,980,251$169,649,1109.46%9.46%Return to organic AUM growth
2026 (YTD)$1,879,047,361$85,067,1104.53%4.53%Capacity-driven slowdown, mid-year snapshot

AUM Growth Snapshot

1. Long-Term Growth

a. From 2013 → 2026

• AUM grew from $205.5M → $1.879B (CAGR ≈ 15.9%)

• Growth closely mirrors client growth, with the same structural inflection points

2. AUM Growth Phases

a. Phase 1 — Early Steady Growth (2013–2016)

b. Phase 2 — Acceleration (2017-2022)

c. Phase 3 — Acquisition Spike → Capacity Plateau (2023–2026)

3. Key Insights

a. 2024 spike is not organic growth – one-time acquisition event

b. Organic capacity roughly 70 clients/year

c. AUM continues rising even when client onboarding plateaus

d. Operating at maximum organic throughput, reinforcing the need for capacity planning and workflow redesign to sustain future growth


Advisor Growth

YearTotal AdvisorsAdvisors Added
20132
201420
201531
201630
201741
201840
201962
202060
202171
202281
202380
2024102
2025100
2026 (YTD)100

Advisor Growth Snapshot

1. Early Expansion (2013-2017)

a. Slow, steady growth to 4 advisors

• Hired two advisors to manage current book

2. Recruitment Event 1 (2019)

a. Added advisor with a full book

b. +45 clients, +$90M AUM acquired

c. Additional 41 organic clients, +$98M AUM

3. Further Expansion (2021-2022)

a. Two advisors added to support rising demand

4. Recruitment Event 2 (2024)

a. Two high‑performing wirehouse advisors joined

b. +100 clients, +$155M AUM acquired

c. +69 organic clients, +$300M AUM (boosted by several large households)

5. Key Insights

a. Advisor growth is event‑driven, not linear

b. Productivity remains flat across the team, advisors are constrained by task mix, not client volume

c. Operational bottlenecks in CSA execution and compliance review, not advisor headcount


Growth & Capacity Assumptions

Assumptions

1. Clients

a. Organic client capacity ≈ 70 clients/year

b. Scenario modeling: 50 (Conservative), 70 (Expected), 85 (Aggressive)

2. AUM

a. AUM growth modeled at 12–14%, driven by 5–6% market returns and $1.1M avg household size

b. Advisor‑book acquisitions included only in Aggressive scenario

3. Revenue

a. Advisory revenue based on 0.85% blended fee

b. Planning revenue scenario modeling: 12% adoption x $1,800/year (Expected), 8% x $1,500 (Conservative), 20% x $2,400 (Aggressive)

c. Expected revenue CAGR: 12–15%

4. Staffing

a. Advisors

• 1 Advisor every 3 years (Expected), 1 Advisor every 5 years (Conservative), 1 Advisor every 2 years (Aggressive)

b. Client Service Associates

• 60-70 new clients/year (Expected), 90-110 new clients/year (Aggressive)

• Conservative model excluded, workflow redesigned around CSAs

c. Planners & Compliance Reviewers

• Scale with client and AUM growth

5. Capacity

a. Organic onboarding ceiling: ~70 clients/year

b. Workflow redesign increases capacity to 100–120 clients/year

c. Advisor capacity is not the bottleneck

d. Growth ceiling determined by CSA + compliance throughput


Client & Revenue Growth Forecast

Client Forecast

3-Year Client Forecast

a. Expected scenario (70 clients/year)

2027: 725 + 70 = 795, 2028: 795 + 70 = 865, 2029: 825 + 50 = 875

b. Conservative scenario (70 clients/year)

2027: 725 + 50 = 775, 2028: 775 + 50 = 825 2029: 825 + 50 = 875

c. Aggressive scenario (90 clients/year)

2027: 725 + 90 = 815, 2028: 815 + 90 = 905, 2029: 905 + 90 = 995

Revenue Forecast

Expected

YearTotal ClientsNew ClientsTotal AUMAdvisory Fee RevenuePlanning Rev (New Clients)Total Revenue
202672570$1,879,047,361$15,971,903$15,971,903
202779570$2,059,394,966$17,504,857$15,120$17,519,977
202886570$2,249,661,689$19,122,124$15,120$19,137,244
202993570$2,450,393,082$20,828,341$15,120$20,843,461

Conservative

YearTotal ClientsNew ClientsTotal AUMAdvisory Fee RevenuePlanning Rev (New Clients)Total Revenue
202672550$1,879,047,361$15,971,903$15,971,903
202777550$2,037,394,966$17,317,857$6,000$17,323,857
202882550$2,204,451,689$18,737,839$6,000$18,743,839
202987550$2,380,696,532$20,235,921$6,000$20,241,921

Aggressive

YearTotal ClientsNew ClientsTotal AUMAdvisory Fee RevenuePlanning Rev (New Clients)Total Revenue
202672590$1,879,047,361$15,971,903$15,971,903
202781590$2,081,394,966$17,691,857$43,200$17,735,057
202890590$2,294,871,689$19,506,409$43,200$19,549,609
202999590$2,520,089,632$21,420,762$43,200$21,463,962